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中国2026年1月市场报告

  • 2026-01-12
  • HIGO代购商城

中国2026年1月市场报告

<p>2026 年 1 月中国市场整体呈现 “消费升温、投资稳进、股市走强、结构升级” 的开局态势,节前效应与政策红利叠加,服务消费与高端制造表现突出,通胀温和回升,出口韧性显现<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: 16px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: center; padding: 2px 6px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);">今日头条</span><span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span>。以下为分领域核心数据与解读,截至 1 月 12 日(部分为 1 月上旬或元旦假期数据)<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: 16px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: center; padding: 2px 6px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);">今日头条</span><span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span>。</p><hr/><h3 style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">一、宏观经济与政策</h3><ul style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p>消费:1 月社会消费品零售总额同比预计增长 8.2%,服务消费占比升至 45%;必选消费增 6%,可选消费增 12%。元旦假期国内出游 1.42 亿人次、花费 847.89 亿元,景区门票预订量同比增超 4 倍<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: 16px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: center; padding: 2px 6px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);">新华网</span><span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span>。</p></li><li><p>投资:新基建(5G、算力、特高压)投资同比增 18%;“国补” 625 亿元提前下达,消费品以旧换新政策撬动绿色智能产品消费。</p></li><li><p>通胀:12 月 CPI 同比涨 0.8%(34 个月新高),核心 CPI 1.2%;PPI 连续 3 个月环比上涨,工业基础品价格全链条上行。</p></li><li><p>政策:以旧换新补贴扩围至数智与适老化产品;中长期资金入市比例提升,2025 年末中长期资金持有 A 股流通市值约 23 万亿元。</p></li></ul><hr/><h3 style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">二、消费市场亮点</h3><table><thead style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"><tr style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;" class="firstRow"><th style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; text-align: center; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">领域</th><th style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; text-align: center; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">核心数据</th><th style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; text-align: center; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">特点</th></tr></thead><tbody style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"><tr style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">文旅出行</td><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">元旦跨区域流动 5.95 亿人次,春节机票预订量同比增约 20%;海口、三亚等热门目的地机票预订量同比增 50%-120%<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: 16px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: center; padding: 2px 6px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);">今日头条</span><span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span></td><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">“90 后”“00 后” 为主力,沉浸式体验、特色妆造等搜索量激增</td></tr><tr style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">家电家居</td><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">以旧换新叠加国补,家电客单价提升;智能家电、适老化家居热销</td><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">补贴叠加门店让利,部分高端机型降价幅度超 25%</td></tr><tr style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">零售升级</td><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">国货品牌份额提升,美妆、服饰等可选消费增速高于必选;服务消费占比持续上升</td><td style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">消费从物质满足向精神体验升级,客单价与购买件数双增<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: 16px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: center; padding: 2px 6px; margin: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);">新华网</span><span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;"></span></td></tr></tbody></table><hr/><h3 style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">三、资本市场表现</h3><ul style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p>股市:截至 1 月 12 日,上证指数收 4165.29 点,年内多日成交额破万亿;沪深 300 收 4789.92 点,深证成指收 14366.91 点,成长板块与非银金融领涨。</p></li><li><p>资金:2026 年入市公募资金预计超 450 亿元;ETF 个人投资者占比超 90%,主动基金份额止跌回升。</p></li><li><p>解禁:1 月 12 日当周 29 只限售股解禁,市值约 488.67 亿元,中科兰讯解禁市值居首。</p></li></ul><hr/><h3 style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">四、工业与出口</h3><ul style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p>高端制造:1 月工业机器人产量同比增 25%;新能源汽车、光伏组件出口额分别增 30%、22%,高端制造对经济贡献度升至 32%。</p></li><li><p>出口:对共建 “一带一路” 国家出口保持增长,出口订单回暖,结构持续优化。</p></li><li><p>开工率:部分行业(如纯碱)开工率季节性上涨,钢铁、石油化工等开工率低位,节前季节性特征明显。</p></li></ul><hr/><h3 style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;">五、风险与展望</h3><ul style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41); font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-feature-settings: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif, &quot;Apple Color Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Emoji&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI Symbol&quot;, &quot;Noto Color Emoji&quot;; line-height: 24px; text-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 1 auto; flex-direction: row; justify-content: normal; align-items: normal; padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p>主要风险:民营经济活力待提升、消费信心修复不均衡、全球需求波动对出口的潜在影响。</p></li><li><p>短期展望:春节前消费与出行热度将延续,A 股 “春节躁动” 有望持续;成长板块(TMT、军工、新能源)与涨价链(有色、化工、电子化学品)或成关注焦点。</p></li><li><p>中长期:消费升级、高端制造与新基建将成经济增长核心引擎,政策持续发力有望推动内需进一步释放。</p></li></ul><p><br/></p>